“But the curve is beautiful, Janelle.”
“The curve is a lie, Marcus. It’s a literal, geometric hallucination.”
“It’s four hundred and twelve new signups in six hours. That’s more than you had all last month. You should be opening the good scotch, not staring at the ceiling like you’re calculating a grocery list.”
“Look at the names. Just look at them. Unless there’s a sudden influx of students from a country where everyone is named ‘q88_zx_plpl’ and has an email address ending in a domain that looks like a cat walked across a keyboard, we are in trouble. I didn’t get students. I got a swarm.”
A Vertical Line of Automated Abuse
There are seven ways a digital registration can be classified as fraudulent, according to the standard taxonomy of automated abuse, and the most common is the randomized alpha-numeric string. It was in Portland, the kind of grey morning where the dampness seems to seep through the window glass of the converted spare room Janelle used as her studio. She wasn’t looking at her pottery wheel; she was looking at a dashboard that showed a vertical line of growth. It was the kind of graph every entrepreneur dreams of, a sharp, unyielding upward trajectory that suggested her online wheel-throwing course had finally “gone viral.”
But Janelle knew better. She was staring at a phantom army.
While Janelle slept, her virtual assistant in a time zone ahead had seen the numbers, felt that same rush of false victory, and dutifully executed the protocol. Every single one of those 412 “students” had been tagged ‘New Student – Week 1’. The welcome automation had fired. The first lesson-a high-resolution video file and a heavy PDF guide-had been dispatched to 412 mailboxes.
By , the recoil hit. Her email service provider, a platform that prides itself on “deliverability” and “clean lists,” had sent a notification with the cold efficiency of a guillotine. The subject line didn’t offer a celebratory scotch; it demanded action regarding unusual bounce activity. Her sender reputation, a metric she had spent carefully building by engaging with real humans who actually wanted to learn how to center clay on a wheel, was being dismantled in real-time.
I’ve seen this before, though usually in a different context. In my day job as a prison education coordinator, we deal with “ghost enrollments.” It’s a different kind of bot-usually a bureaucratic one-where names appear on a roster for a GED prep class because a computer somewhere decided that’s where they belong. You walk into the room with twenty-four folders, and six people show up.
The other eighteen exist only in the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet looks healthy; the classroom is a tomb. The frustration is identical. You’ve prepared for people, but you’re serving ghosts.
The Chemistry of Undeserved Growth
Last weekend, I decided to channel my frustration into a DIY project I found on Pinterest. It was supposed to be a “distressed” floating shelf for my wife’s office. The instructions were simple: take a piece of new pine, soak steel wool in white vinegar for , and wipe it on. The chemical reaction with the tannins in the wood is supposed to create a beautiful, aged silver-grey.
“Instead, my shelf turned a sickly, bruised purple that smelled like a pickle factory had exploded in my garage. I had followed the metric of the ‘project,’ but I hadn’t understood the chemistry of the wood.”
Small business owners do the same thing with their registration forms. We set up the form, we connect the automation, and we measure the “number.” We assume that because we built a door, only people will walk through it.
There is a historical precedent for this kind of measurement madness, often referred to as the “Cobra Effect” or, more accurately in this case, the Soviet Nail Factory problem. In the planned economy of the Soviet Union, a factory was once tasked with producing nails and was measured by the total weight of the output.
The managers, being rational actors who wanted to meet their quota with the least amount of resistance, produced a single, massive, several-ton nail. It was useless for building anything, but it satisfied the weight requirement perfectly. When the government realized the error and changed the metric to the total number of nails produced, the factory pivoted. They produced millions of tiny, needle-thin nails that were too small to hold two boards together. Again, the nails were useless, but the numbers were spectacular.
Janelle’s registration form was currently the Soviet nail factory. It was optimized for the count, not the customer.
Metric: Total Weight
RESULT: 1 Giant Useless Nail
Metric: Total Count
RESULT: 1,000,000 Useless Needles
Why the Swarm Chooses Your Form
The bots don’t sign up for your course because they want to learn pottery. They aren’t even necessarily trying to “hack” your site in the cinematic sense of a teenager in a hoodie bypasses a firewall. Most of the time, they are simply looking for a “place” to exist.
They are testing account creation processes to see if they can use your site as a relay for spam, or they are trying to age an account so that later, it looks like a “trusted” user when they post a link to a gambling site in your comments. They are the cheapest supplier of the volume you said you wanted.
When you use a generic registration process-the kind that comes standard with a base WordPress installation-you are basically leaving a bucket of water out in a field and being surprised when it attracts mosquitoes. The mosquitoes aren’t an attack; they are a biological certainty.
The damage isn’t just the annoyance of deleting names. The damage is the “tax” you pay on your legitimate operations. When Janelle’s email provider sees a 60% bounce rate from those 412 fake addresses, it flags her account.
The next time she sends an email to her actual, paying students-the ones who spent $197 on her course-that email is much more likely to land in their “Promotions” or “Spam” folder. She is losing her voice because she didn’t protect her ears.
This is where the divergence between a “website” and a “business platform” happens. A website is a collection of pages; a business platform is a managed ecosystem. Janelle needed a gatekeeper. She needed a way to ensure that the person signing up was, at the very least, in possession of a functioning email address and a human pulse.
Email Deliverability
Falling Fast
High bounce rates from bots signal to Gmail and Outlook that you are the spammer.
Friction as a Tool
Most creators think adding security will “hurt the conversion rate.” They’ve been told by marketing gurus that any “friction” in the signup process is the enemy of growth. So they leave the door wide open, fearing that a simple email verification step or a “prove you’re a human” check will scare off the shy potter from Poughkeepsie.
But friction is a tool. In the prison system, we have “controlled movement.” It’s friction by design. It ensures that the people in the hallway are supposed to be in the hallway. Without it, you don’t have a facility; you have a riot. On a website, friction like email verification or honeypot fields is what separates the people from the scripts.
If Janelle had been using HMDIA, her morning would have been entirely different. Instead of a panic attack, she would have seen a handful of pending registrations that never confirmed their email addresses.
The bots would have hit the form, failed the invisible spam protection, or simply failed to click a link in an inbox they don’t actually monitor. The “New Student” tag wouldn’t have been applied to 412 rows of gibberish. Her sender reputation would have remained pristine, like an unbisqued bowl.
We are living in an era of “vanity metrics” where the tools we use are designed to make us feel good about numbers that don’t matter. Your “User List” is just a number. Your “Email List” is just a number. If those numbers don’t represent a person who can actually pick up a piece of clay and try to follow your instructions, those numbers are just weight. They are the giant Soviet nail.
I think back to my purple shelf. I was so focused on the “result”-the aged look-that I didn’t care about the process. I didn’t test a small patch. I didn’t check if the wood was treated. I just dumped the vinegar on and hoped for the best. Janelle did the same with her business. She celebrated the growth without verifying the source.
Building Something That Holds Weight
The solution isn’t to stop growing. The solution is to change what you celebrate. Celebrate the verified user. Celebrate the person who completes the “Two-Factor” handshake. Celebrate the friction, because friction is how you know you’re dealing with something solid.
“The kiln doesn’t care how many pots you promised; it only fires the clay that actually sits on the shelf.”
When you stop measuring the vertical line on the graph and start measuring the quality of the connection, the bots lose their power. They can’t provide quality. They can only provide the illusion of scale.
Janelle eventually cleaned up her list. It took , a few dozen support tickets, and a very awkward apology to her email provider. She installed a proper registration manager, turned on email verification, and watched the “growth” line flatten out significantly.
“It feels like I’m failing,” she told me a week later. “The numbers are so small now.”
“No,” I told her, thinking of my now-sanded and properly stained shelf. “The numbers are real now. You’re finally building something that can hold weight.”
She’s back to pottery now. The 412 phantoms are gone, replaced by three actual people who asked questions about the consistency of slip. It’s not a “viral” success story, but at least when she sends out her next lesson, she knows it’s landing in a mailbox that belongs to a person with clay under their fingernails.
And in the end, that’s the only metric that doesn’t smell like a pickle factory.