After an unhealthy month of index return performance, the complete story for being long commodities should be revisited. There are five stories for why commodities will increase and one major story for a continued downturn in commodity prices. The long-term up cycle for commodities is based on emerging market growth.
This growth is still dominated for commodities. The improvement in prosperity has changed the diet for most in these countries. The upsurge in overall GDP growth has increased the demand for building materials, energy, and foodstuffs. The growth in the EM middle income is surpassing and significant the size in America. The marginal buyer of commodities will not be the US or other developed countries but would be the BRIC countries, and non-OECD countries.
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The insufficient long-term investment in mining agriculture and drilling has intended that supply will not be able to meet the current upsurge in demand. While this is not a peak-oil-type story, the cost of finding, extracting, and significantly growing goods has increased. There’s a lag between price increases and investment in commodities. Gleam lag between the investment and the actual production.
Higher volatility has also reduced the amount of investment in many commodities. Higher uncertainty will certainly reduce long-term investments. Even if there is a slowdown in growth in such countries like China, its overall size shall still impact on …